I identify the gap between what boards approve and what markets defend.
Leaders optimize for stakeholder consensus. They don't always assess whether customers will defend those decisions under pressure.
I find these contradictions before they become crises.
I track 58 proprietary hybrid metrics that predict positioning failures 6 to 12 months before they appear in standard analyst reports. These combine narrative signals (message drift, evasion patterns, expensive signaling) with financial data (efficiency ratios, margin trajectories, cash conversion) to detect when companies lose the ability to defend why they deserve premium pricing. When a public company increases marketing spend while customers decline for three consecutive quarters, the efficiency ratio becomes infinite, but boards see revenue growth while markets price in structural erosion. That gap is the early warning.
All public predictions are filed before the events they describe. Documentation on request.
Predictions In Progress
Public predictions are limited to companies with no active engagement. All retained work is conducted under NDA and does not appear here.
Lowe's Narrative Collapse
Dollar General CEO Transition
GoDaddy Customer Decline
Workday CEO Fourth Return
Salesforce Executive Exodus
Super Bowl 2026 Narrative Risk Report Card
Vital Farms Premium Positioning
Pandora Commodity Strategy
Target CEO Transition
PayPal CEO Appointment
Disney CEO Appointment
Jaguar Rebrand
UPS Amazon Exit
Pre-Distribution Record
Predictions on this page were documented and distributed before the events they describe. Distribution record includes physical filings to named executives, board-level email correspondence, timestamped LinkedIn posts, and Substack publications. All available on request. The purpose is not to claim credit retroactively. The purpose is to show the framework works before it's convenient to say so.
2026 Confirmed Predictions (Non-Client)
Novo Nordisk / Hims Partnership
Case Studies
Lululemon: $8B revenue growth destroyed premium positioning
Expanded from yoga studios to mass market. Diluted brand equity that justified price premium.
Dos Equis: Killed "Most Interesting Man" to chase millennials
Lost narrative authority. Bringing him back at 87 after 10 years. Resurrection or reminder they killed it? Answer by end of 2026.
Nike: Strategic narrative coherence drives market confidence
$6B market cap gain under Elliott Hill. Authority to reclaim positioning.
Bud Light: $400M collapse from weak narrative foundations
Small contradictions compound into public failure when positioning lacks defense.
Starbucks: Identity concentration risk after founder departure
Meaning remained tied to founder, could not be sustained by institution. Ongoing.
Approach
Every organization tells a story. They only face backlash when that story can't be defended.
Proximity to problems blinds leadership. They optimize for stakeholder approval instead of asking whether customers will believe what they're promising.
I identify these gaps before they surface as crises, when adjustment is still possible without reputational or operational fallout. The companies on this page are not here because I want them to fail. They're here because the gap between what they're saying and what they're doing is documented, falsifiable, and worth naming before the market names it for them.
Transparency is not a liability. For most of the companies on this page, it's the only thing that stops a slow erosion from becoming an irreversible one.
Available nationwide for narrative risk assessment.